Aztecs AT Black Tide - Game of the Week!

Game prediction: Black Tide 22 – Aztecs 15

The Aztecs are the only team completely in control of their own destiny. If they win, they get the 1 seed. Even if they lose, but give up 9 less points than the Dors or BT, they still get the 1 seed. However, if they lose badly, they could fall all the way to the 3 seed. But that’s not on their mind. They care about 1 thing. The one in front of em. Aztecs already been texting me “6/1” or “3OT” all season. This is their Revenge Rose Bowl. They’ve had it circled all year, and I fully expect them to pull out all the stops, win at all costs. There’s a lot to like about the Tecs. I think they’re better coached than previous years. Colt is somehow still doing it at a high level, and running even more effectively than he did last season. He’s also protecting the ball better (only 3 INT).Barber (who I previously thought was overrated) has impressed me this year. He’s got excellent balance on his way to leading the league with 7 TD’s. I do think Donnie runs harder and more powerfully, just in a straight line, and has an even higher YPC than Austin. I love Colon who is leading the entire league in catches (27) and Rec Yards (388). He’s a gamer, and he’s tougher than your avg lil’ slot guy.And Hull is still Mr. Everything that will be up for League Awards (2 Pass TD, 3 Rush TD, 6 Rec TD). Their OL is the leagues 3rd best. The defense is extremely stingy against the run. They blitz hard and they tackle well in the open field. Hoffman is easily the best player, but his play time has suffered of late. If he was banged up, the Bye week will surely help. Rumor is Vikings used to fight in a Shroom induced Rage. Maybe give that a try. White/Roope/Gusters coming off the edge have combined for 10 Sacks. Roope in particular is an effective blitzer. Donnie is probably their most underrated defender. He does everything really well. Talented in coverage, blitzing, tackling, and has a high motor. Kinda kills me we sent him over there. Ghormley and Llamas (who spent the preseason with BT, and is maybe still on the Horsemen?) are great at shedding blocks in the interior. Ghormley especially has this wild ability to line up head up over an OL and Olay him into missing him completely. Driscoll has been a solid corner all year, where Posey has been a bit more of a liability. Garcia and Martin split the Safety position, and neither is a drop off keeping both fresh. Kleffner, Kodat, and Adams are not overly athletic, in fact mostly stationary, but they all bring a solid power to them in run stuffing. All 3 are really strong dudes. Gilbreath has had a hard time living up to last season, as his numbers have dropped significantly, and is a liability in coverage. When Trost and Bell are in there, they are knowledgeable and flow well, though they are probably 2 of the weaker defenders teams can target a bit. The starters play Special Teams as they are deep enough to do so, and Mr Everything Hull also handles kicks and punts. All in all, it’s crazy to think how far these guys have come in a few years (lost by 85 points to BT in 2020). #1 in the ICFL, #4 in the Northwest, and I even saw someone had them #9 in the Nation… It would really be a shame if someone were to stick a uhhhbig ass Trident in all that.

Keys: 

1. Less than 2 Turnovers.

2. Force 2+ Turnovers. 

3. Don’t allow BT to score on ST or D.

BT has had back to back Bye weeks. They’ll be fresh, but probably rusty. How did BT spend their off weeks? Did they practice hard and stay in routine? Or did they take 2 weeks off, sit around, and drink beer? Either way, they’re still the defending champs. They’re still Daddy until you beat them, and you haven’t. Plus BT has been a different team since finally making the switch at QB. Mostly just in limiting TO’s. They have 3 Rushers in the Top 7 with Reigning MVP Marco Garcia climbing the charts Weekly. The OL is still the leagues Best, and they have 2 TE’s that block better than most tackles. Still the unquestioned best rush attack in the ICFL. Reigning League Defensive MVP Ryan Carlen leads the Defense with 44 tackles and 4.5 Sacks. The LB’s are led my Nick Dottellis (30 Tackles, 1.5 Sacks). The Secondary doesn’t generally put up stats because they don’t generally give up many catches. They are led by freak athlete Zach Peterson roaming the middle. BT has scored 8 times on Defense this season (which is twice as many TD’s as they’ve given up this season). So yes, BT did lose a game this year. The first regular season game they’ve lost in 5 years. And it’s wild how quickly some seem to forget. 60% of the league would bet on you guys to lose this weekend. Do you understand that? Maybe it’s time to issue a reminder. BT is currently sitting in the 3 Seed. In order to earn the 1 Seed, they need to beat the Aztecs by at least 11 points, while also allowing less points than the Dors do to the Alphas. If it turns into a high scoring affair, there’s a good chance these 2 teams meet again in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Keys: 

1. 200+ Rushing Yards.

2. Penalty Free Game.

3.Score on ST or Defense.

Best Match Up – Desire is the great equalizer in this one. Obviously being close to guys on both teams, I can tell you the Aztecs want it more. They are motivated. BT still has a bit of a delusional invincibility syndrome. Yes, BT is more talented. Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard.

That said, I’m really excited to see Jamie and Fisher vs Colon and Hull.

Biggest Mismatch – Experience. BT’s core has played together for over half a decade now. Several big time matchups like this. They won’t get lost in the moment. And every time I start to fill my shorts with poo, someone (often Swain) clutches up and makes a championship type of play. The Aztecs are undefeated for the first time in program history going against a team they’ve never beaten. Bring yourhuggies, or ya might piss it away.

Bold Prediction – Beating any team twice (especially potentially in back to back weeks) is tough. BT will win at least 1 of their 2 matchups (IF they meet twice). Maybe even both. They’ve beaten the Aztecs 10+ times in a row. That’s nothing new. The Aztecs on the other hand, I could see catching us once, but I don’t believe can beat BT twice. Either way, win or lose, I’ll bet the Aztecs still retain the 1 seed.

Sabers AT Warhawks

Game prediction: Sabers 20 – Warhawks 6

The Sabers are still alive. If they were to somehow squeak in, bring Hayden (and the other weapons) back, and knock off a 1 seed in the 1st round, that would be the most improbable and heroic story in league history. As long as the Sabers take care of business this weekend, they’ll be 4-4 (along with the Savage who they beat). Assuming the Alphas lose to the Dors, they’d also be 4-4, creating a 3 way tie. Head to head is the next deciding factor, and they’ve all beaten each other, so that goes out the window. Next is points against (which pretty much eliminates Savage at 225 allowed). The Alphas have given up 31 more points than the Alphas. So, if the Sabers were to shutout the Warhawks, and the Dors put up at least 32 points on the Alphas, the most annoying team in the league would sneak their happy asses into the dance by the skin of their long teeth. And it’s highly plausible. Most the league expects the Dors to annihilate the Alphas. And the Warhawks haven’t scored a point since April (vs Guardians). They’ve been shutout 4 times already, so the Sabers could do that. Emmit Johnson alone is enough to beat the Warhawks. How the Sabers keep plucking quality passers off the QB tree is apparently just out of my 4’ reach. And their defense is talented and physical enough to overwhelm a 1 man Warhawk offense. So, let me lead the collective league chant of “Go Alphas” in order to keep that callused kneeshavin’ ankle grabber Logan and his merry band of purple pillow biters out of the post season. Congrats on the new baby though, seriously!

Keys: 

1. Pitch the shut out. 

2. Under 100 rushing yards allowed. 

3.Take big shots downfield. 5+ pass attempts over 30 yards.

Warhawks season is over. But you guys were vastly improved from the perennial bottom dweller. Huge props to the improvement on defense. Call it Rob Castlemans leadership, or whoever recruited Garrison Roach (currently leading the league with 56 tackles). You guys do have a playoff defense. Unfortunately, your 1 man offense just isn’t enough to win games. That said, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for you guys to polish of your season with a dub this weekend. The biggest problem you guys have on offense is you put Lopez on an island. He’s a great weapon at QB, but not if he doesn’t have anyone to throw to. You “robbed” your offense to bolster your defense. But your defense is already your teams strength. You don’t need to put all your targets on D, you need to score some damn points. I know you guys love Parham, and he is a tough SOB. But he’s in no way elusive. You’re not scoring point giving him 20 carries between the tackles. Do that on your 3rdn shorts, or by the goal line. But QB12 is your best bet at ticking the scoreboard. Roll him out to the right (right handed), slide the pocket, and hit flood concepts all day. Parham in the flat, Fisk on the 10-15 yard out, Eckebrecht over the top. If it’s covered well, let Marriota spin. At the end of the day, there’s nothing else to play for. This is it. Then 9 months till any of you play a game again. Go make a statement. Shock the kitties, the guys that left (especially “2 Sabers, 1 Cave” crew), and tried to gut your team on the way out the door. This is a bitter grudge match. Go be the ones to end their playoff dreams. What would be sweeter than that for you boys?

Keys: 

1. Take away the big play. Under 3 game breaking plays (plays for 30+). 

2. Key Morris Bunn. Hold him under 100 total yards.

3. Lopez out rush Parham.

Best Match Up – Warhawk D vs Saber O (specifically Papa Roach vs Mama Honey Bunns)

Biggest Mismatch – Warhawk O vs Saber D (specifically Saber DL vs Warhawk OL)

Bold Prediction – Sabers get up big early. Completely forget their ONLY goal is to shut out the Wawks, focus on running it up, and give up a garbage time TD. Dors score 35, and that garbage TD is the sole reason they still miss playoffs.

Wolfpack At Guardians

Guardians Win! Guardians Win!Guardians Win! No, not against the MWFL’s Wolfpack. But against the folded DBax! Hey, it counts. Congrats G-Men on your dub. You guys made it through the season, they didn’t. And why shouldn’t that be celebrated? And hey, if you guys were to go compound it with a Dub over the travelling Jared Hicks led puppy patrol, that would be epic. The entire league is your fans for a day. This could potentially be your 15 year tenured programs final game, imagine ending it all with a dub in front of the world (more like 37 fans). Go Goon Squad!

Matadors At Alphas

Game prediction: Matadors 33 – Alphas 13

The Dors have the least control among the top teams. They can win, in fact there’s little doubt that they will (60% of the league expects them to win by at least 3 scores). But everything rests entirely on the morning game. Fortunately for them, they’ll know exactly what parameters they need to accomplish before their game kicks off. If they want a 1 seed, they are (ironically) big BT fans in a high scoring affair. The biggest kick in the nutz is that the Dors are away (for the 2nd time). I’ve already heard the head coach and several key defensive players not making the trip. This week I’m rooting for my boys. Favela, Osmer, Ross, Hughes, Allen, LaBarbera. I have faith in them, and as long as they are there, this ones in the bag. You guys already know what to do. Key Bowers.

Keys: 

1. I say it every week, you don’t care. Why should you? But Run the Damn Ball. Haha.

2. Get the poly’s and the Leggett’s there by any means necessary.

3. Protect Jared. Under 3 Sacks allowed.

Alphas, we have 1 goal. Winning would be great, I don’t think that’s realistic. The vast majority of the league expects you guys to get wrecked, and that should piss you off. I need you to score exactly 31 points. That gives keeps Dors out of the 1 Seed, and keeps the Gaybers (shit, typo) out of the playoffs. Ok, now that we’ve established that, I have an axe to grind with you guys. Last week you guys put up gargantuan effort vs the Aztecs. And you were in the game. Drops were killers. Hopefully you guys bought a jugs machine and your WR’s stopped lathering their gloves in KY pregame. Seriously, I really felt for Eldredge last game, he did everything he could, and WR’s, this may seem harsh, but you absolutely let him down. It was embarrassing. Ok, sorry, I got off track. My axe to grind is in coaching. Who is your best player? Is there any debate? Do you believe that 5 carries (7 total touches) was sufficient? He averaged 18 MF yards per carry. His most amazing run (80 yard Tug up the sideline) didn’t count. It got called back for block in the back. So then, what? You just stop giving him the ball after he shows he can make magic happen? Honestly, wtf were you thinking? So then the next drive, Eldredge comes out and puts a hitch right on the numbers, and of course, right off the WR’s hands into the defenses for a pick. Imagine if you were instead trusting your best player and putting the ball in his hands instead of trusting guys with toes on their hands. You don’t have to hide BowWow, or try to trick the other team. You’re overthinking it. Everyone knows he’s getting it, they key on him, and still Bowser Fux. You guys had an opportunity to knock off the #1 team, and I firmly believe coaching cost you that one. If you want any chance of grabbing the bull by the horns on Saturday, there’s only 1 guy. And he needs to focus entirely on offense. I know he’s your best player. But the Dors don’t run the ball, barely ever. He’s wasted over there. But a nickel corner in his place, and let Logan MF Bowers have the MF rock, and get out of his MF way.

Keys: 

1. Logan Bowers 20+ touches.

2. Penalties has been a thorn in your side all year. Stop getting big plays called back for your selfishness.

3. Generate 3+ Sacks. 

4. Oh yeah, CATCH THE DAMN BALL. It’s a football. There’s grip and laces. Just fkn catch it.

Best Match Up – Alpha Run Game vs Matador Run D. Bowers vs Hamilton.

Biggest Mismatch – Matador Pass game vs Alpha Pass D (minus Blancas). He will take away 1, but the other 17 WR’s the Dors throw to will each get catches.

Bold Prediction – More of a hope than a prediction. I would really love to see a Matador run game. Blaze Tokioka, Daniel Osmer, Matt Garner are all for too talented to combine for 12 carries a game. (That’s avg 4 each math majors). Also, I’d like to see Lab score (either on D or a PR).